The inaugural NWSL x LIGA MX Femenil Summer Cup has reached the final matchday of group play. Following Friday’s matches, we will know which four teams are on their way to Kansas City for next week’s semifinals. Here is a group-by-group look at advancement scenarios. Keep in mind that the four semifinalists are from five group winners. So someone is going to have the dubious distinction of winning their group but being eliminated.
Remember also that matches tied after 90 minutes go directly to penalty kicks with the teams splitting points 2-1. For purposes of this post, a win will be for a three-point win, a shootout win/loss will be for that result on penalties, and a loss will be a 0-point loss.
Group A
- Thorns (3 pts, +3, Reign)
- Royals (3 pts, +1, Tijuana)
- Reign (3 pts, –, Thorns)
- Tijuana (3 pts, -4, Royals)
It’s all to play for in Group A – sort of. This is the only group in which all four teams remain alive but it is also the one of two groups where none of the teams control their destiny to the semifinals. The most obvious path to win the group for all of the teams is to win and have the other match go to penalties. If both matches are decided as three-point matches it will all come down to goal difference with an obvious edge to the Thorns who are +2 to the next closest team. Where things get interesting is if both matches go to penalties. Since that means draws and status quo on goal difference, whichever team currently ahead that wins the shootout will win the group.
As for advancing, every other group has a team eligible to hit at least seven points, and if it happens in all four, then the Group A winner is out. The best case for the Group A winner to advance is to win outright, have Monterrey take at least two points from the Courage and Orlando beat Louisville in a shootout. Anything else will require help AND a goal-difference edge over another group winner. If both Group A games go to penalties and the Thorns win plus the previous Group E scenarios, the Thorns will advance on goal difference.
Save 24% for the 2024 Paris Olympics
In honor of the 2024 Paris Olympics, we are offering a discount on new annual subscriptions to The Equalizer. Use code Paris2024 at checkout or follow the link below.
Coupon valid through the closing ceremony on Aug. 11.
Group B
- Angel City (6 pts, +3, Wave)
- Club America (3 pts, +1, Bay)
- Wave (3 pts, –, Angel City)
- Bay (0 pts, -4, Club America)
Angel City only needs to get out of their 90 minutes against the Wave on even terms to snag the point necessary to win the group and book passage to the semifinals. Should ACFC lose the match, things could get a bit chaotic but it doesn’t mean Angel City can’t win the group.
Club America needs to beat Bay FC and have Angel City lose while maintaining a goal-difference edge over both Angel City and the Wave. A 1-0 win combined with a 1-0 Wave win will leave Angel City and Club America level on points, goal difference, and total goals, and will make Angel City the group winner having defeated Club America.
The Wave have the same scenario as Club America, but they need to beat Angel City by at least two goals to overcome the goal difference deficit. After that, they need Club America not to win or to pass them on goal difference.
Bay FC have been eliminated.
If the group winner finishes on six points it will come down to tiebreakers unless the Monterrey d. Courage/Pride d. Louisville in a shootout combo happens OR both Group A games go to penalty kicks.
Group C
- Current (6 pts, +4, Tigres)
- Tigres (3 pts, +1, Current)
- Dash (3 pts, -1, 3 pts, Pachuca)
- Pachuca (0 pst, -4, Dash)
Similar to Group B, the Current win the group and advance to the semis with a shootout loss or better. Even a one-goal loss will nab them the group unless the Dash beat Pachuca by 5 goals, or by 4 while finishing with more total goals than the Current.
Tigres need to beat the Current by at least two goals and then hold off the Dash. A two-goal win would put Pachuca at +3 and leave the Dash needing to win by at least four goals over Pachuca to get past on a tiebreaker.
The Dash chances are long. They need a win and a Tigres win plus enough of a difference in the scorelines to win a goal-difference tiebreaker. To do that they will need to win by at least four goals. They have not scored four goals in a match since July 31, 2022.
Pachuca have been eliminated.
If the group winner finishes on six points it will come down to tiebreakers unless the Monterrey d. Courage/Pride d. Louisville in a shootout combo happens OR both Group A games go to penalty kicks.
Group D
- Gotham (5 pts, +1, Guadalajara)
- Spirit (3 pts, +1, Red Stars)
- Guadalajara (3 pts, -1, Gotham)
- Red Stars (1 pts, -1, Spirit)
League holders Gotham hold the cards and will take the group and a semifinal spot with a win or shootout win. Should they lose in a shootout they will still win the group if the Spirit do not win outright, but advancing in that scenario will be dicey at best with a +1 goal difference margin.
The Spirit can win the group with a win and a Gotham shootout loss, or a win plus a Gotham loss while maintaining the goal-difference edge over Guadalajara.
Guadalajara win the group by beating Gotham and overcoming the Spirit’s goal difference edge or having the Spirit do anything but win.
The Red Stars have been eliminated.
The only guaranteed semifinal spot here is if Gotham get at least a shootout win. Short of that the group winner will finish on 6 points and be subject to tiebreakers or one of the the Monterrey d. Courage/Pride d. Louisville in a shootout combo happens OR both Group A games go to penalty kicks scenarios.
Want even more women’s sports coverage?
Subscribers to The Equalizer save 50% on their subscription to our partner publication, The IX. This newsletter has experts covering the latest news in women’s soccer, tennis, basketball, golf, hockey and gymnastics. Each sport has its own day, which means you’ll receive The IX in your inbox six days a week.
Group E
- Louisville (4 pts, +2, Pride)
- Courage (4 pts, –, Monterrey)
- Pride (3 pts, –, Louisville)
- Monterrey (1 pts, -2, Courage)
Louisville has the easiest path here. Beat the Pride and maintain their goal-difference edge over the Courage, or have the Courage drop points, and they will win the group and go to the semifinals. They will also win the group—but not be guaranteed a semifinal spot—with a shootout win a shootout win or worse by the Courage. Louisville can only win the group with a shootout loss combined with any Courage loss.
The win scenario is similar for the Courage. A win while overcoming goal difference to Louisville, or any points dropped by Louisville, vaults the Courage atop the group and to the semifinals. Anything short of a win eliminates the Courage.
The Pride will advance with a win and any dropped points by the Courage.
Monterrey have been eliminated.
If the group winner is on six points, they will advance if both Group A matches go to penalty kicks. Otherwise, it will come down to tiebreakers. If the group winner is on five points—only if the Pride and Monterrey both win in shootouts—Louisville will win the group and advance only if both Group A games go to penalties and the Thorns lose.
