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The United States faces Nigeria on Tuesday evening in front of what is expected to be a packed house at BC Place. A win will assure the top position in Group D.
That will rightly be where the focus of most American soccer fans will be for the day, but the final day of play in Group C as well as D features two very intriguing matches, both of which are likely to decide second place.
Group C – Ecuador (0-2-0) vs Japan (2-0-0)
Tuesday, 5 pm EDT
Winnipeg Stadium, Winnipeg
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Japan are already through and need only a draw to win the group. That should not be a problem as Ecuador have been outscored 16-1 by two teams Japan already beat. It would not be a surprise to see Japan struggle for motivation as it appeared Germany and Norway did on Monday but the final result figures to be routine. And when it’s over Ecuador will be going home.
Group C – Switzerland (1-1-0) vs Cameroon (1-1-0)
Tuesday, 5 pm EDT
Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton
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A pair of impressive debut sides will square off with either team guaranteed to go through if they win, and both guaranteed to go through if they draw. Will the second point make it a dull affair or will both press for the three points? No fewer than three players from these teams have hat tricks in the tournament. Gaelle Enganamouit for Cameroon plus Fabienne Humm and Ramona Bachmann for Switzerland have all done it, all against Ecuador.
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Despite both obliterating Ecuador, both sides can probably hang their hats more on keeping Japan close. The winner—Switzerland gets through second with a draw—gets China in the Round of 16. Both have to view that as a winnable match.
Group D – Nigeria (0-1-1) vs United States (1-0-1)
Tuesday, 8:00 pm EDT
BC Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
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The United States has not been great yet but here they are with a chance to win the group and secure a soft path to the semifinals. They did not score against Sweden but in Nigeria they will find a defensively disorganized team that will be playing desperate to win. The scoreless draw prompted Abby Wambach to suggest the team would be scoring more of the games were on grass which in turn led to the notion the team is looking for excuses.
[KASSOUF: USA expecting Nigeria to ‘fight for their lives’ on Tuesday]
Nigeria is not short on technical skill as they showed against Sweden but are also apt to get frustrated as they showed against Australia. Ugo Njoku, a second half sub against Australia, will not be available as her three-game ban for elbowing Sam Kerr begins.
Group D – Australia (1-1-0) vs Sweden (0-0-2)
Tuesday, 8:00 pm EDT
Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton
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A peach of a match that should be what this tournament should hope to replicate in a majority of its groups going forward. If either team wins it means advancement while a loss will eliminate Sweden and a draw will put Australia through unless Nigeria beats the United States by exactly two goals, and even then the Matildas could advance.
Even though Australia lost to the United States, an argument can be made that they have looked best in this group, at least for 150 of the 180 minutes they have played. Defensively they did a fine job neutralizing Nigeria’s speed. Sweden has less pace than Nigeria so they will need a strong day in midfield. And the much heralded Lotta Schelin has yet to be a factor for Sweden.
Other advancement scenarios:
— If Cameroon and Switzerland do not draw, that would mean at least two groups will have their third-place team finish on three points. That will put all of the teams on four points through – Netherlands, United States, and Colombia.
— If Cameroon and Switzerland do draw, and Nigeria does not beat the United States at exactly two goals then the Netherlands are through. And if Nigeria does not beat the United States at all, then Colombia is although through.
— If Sweden win or draw or if Nigeria win, Thailand are eliminated barring the unlikely scenario that Cameroon, Switzerland, Australia, England, or France lose by enough goals to fall behind Thailand’s minus-7.
